Week 7 NFL bets Year of the underdog continues plus teasers parlays line moves and more tips

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The overarching betting storyline of the 2019 season through six weeks is that it's the year of the underdogs. We thought underdogs were impre sive last year after going 139-119-9 (53.9%) including playoffs, after two straight years with the favorites doing slightly better than .500 (all data in this top section is from the data site Team Rankings). But it turns out that 20-game advantage against the spread is nothing.This year, underdogs are a remarkable 21 games over .500 at 56-35-1, good for a 61.5 percent cover rate.What's going on? A big part of it has to be home-field advantage basically evaporating. Away teams are covering at a similar rate to underdogs at 55-34-1, with only nine of the league's 32 teams under .500 ATS on the road. Of those nine, seven are 1-2 ATS and one is 0-1, the latter being a team that has somehow looked like the worst in football history for much of the year despite only leaving home one time. The last of those poor road teams is the , who at 0-4 ATS away from home are basically the only counterweight to this ma sive road warrior trend we're seeing.On the flip side, nine teams have not posted one ATS lo s on the road this year, with the , , , , , , , and combining to go 23-0-1 ATS on the road. Now, should you just bet every underdog or road team blindly and expect a cover rate above 60 percent the rest of the year? Of course not. Should you play every away underdog, a trend that's -- wait, 41-20-1 ATS? How is that even po sible? OK, I'm not ruling that strategy out.How about straight up? That 62-game sample of away underdogs has produced outright winners 30 times, so slightly le s than 50% (it would be 50% on the nose if not for that travesty of a Monday Joe Kelly Jersey night game). When you factor in the plus odds you're getting on aggregate, betting those underdogs on the moneyline has been exceedingly profitable this year.Will it continue? It's anyone's gue s, but here's something interesting. My weighted home-field advantage formula calculated during the preseason estimated that HFA was only worth on average 2.31 points, well below the typically accepted three points on the line. I use that raw formula as a guide when determining how many points to a sign each team for home-field advantage, but because I'm never going to put a negative number on the board (five teams were below water in the data) and because I might skew slightly toward rounding up, my average home-field number checked in at more like 2.67. We're getting to the interesting part, I promise. I went back and looked at how my projected lines, which combine that HFA data with my power ratings, stacked up to the SuperContest lines (released every Wednesday by the Westgate SuperBook) every week, and every single week, Maury Wills Jersey my projected lines have been cumulatively shaded more toward the home teams. Put another way, my projections were already downplaying home-field advantage, but they haven't been doing it enough.Now, I don't autobet what those projections tell me to, but they certainly factor into my analysis. Last week I had three lines that I felt were underselling the home team by at least 1.5 points. One was the , and I liked the home team there and was wrong. One was the Cardinals, and I liked them at home and was right. The last was the Packers, but I still went with the in that game, even though my home-field ratings give the Packers four points at Lambeau. It turns out the Lions were the better team.Now, I wouldn't throw out home-field advantage altogether, but it's becoming where there are only a few teams for whom I think it matters. Only five teams have been more than one game better than .500 against the spread at home since the start of 2018 (including playoffs). I think you can throw this version of the Dolphins out after they were such a great home-field team for the last few years. That leaves the , , and . Of those teams, no one would question the Pats having a strong home field, and I'd say you can throw the Vikings in there too. The Cowboys covered against the and the trainwreck Dolphins at home this year before losing outright to the Packers in Dallas. The Bears are 1-1 in 2019, with most of their home-field succe s stemming from last year when they were an underrated team in general that finished 12-4 ATS in the regular season. I'd Kenley Jansen Jersey say the jury is still out on both the Bears and Cowboys this year, as it is on basically the rest of the league.Based on the past six weeks, I'll be downgrading a lot of my home-field numbers moving forward. You should think about it too.Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. If you want to know which sides I like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . My picks Over at SportsLine, I've , and I'll be posting plenty of picks for Week 7 over the next few days. Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. Big line moves (lookaheads) Chiefs -3.5 at (was KC -5) at Packers -5.5 (was GB -7) at -2.5 (was TEN -1.5) Lookaheads are lines that are posted for matchups before the previous week's games. Analyzing the biggest movers is beneficial for smart bettors, who have a chance to examine those moves to determine whether there's value in playing against a potential overreaction. The Chiefs line comes down again after another lo s, while the Broncos won with ease against the Titans. If you're one of those people who think the Broncos should be 4-2 (cough cough, Will Brinson), the line probably hasn't come down enough in this matchup, If you think the Chiefs' stock has hit its low point, there's obvious value to play on the road team. The Packers came down after an ugly win over the Lions they probably didn't deserve. And while the Chargers lost to a third-string QB on Sunday night, it's impo sible to look any worse than the Titans offense did earlier in the day against the Broncos, so it's wild to see the market backing them and moving that line toward three. Where DVOA disagrees with line Texans at Colts -1.5Raiders at Packers -5.5Chargers at Titans -2.5Part of my research each week is calculating the DVOA (or DAVE, which is partially reflective of preseason projections) as tracked by Football Outsiders and seeing where the metric has a significant disagreement with the market. Now that defensive adjustments have been included following Week 4, I'll include that analysis here. DAVE is much higher on the Texans than the Colts, and if you're not giving Indy the full three points for homefield advantage, that puts value on the Texans at this price. That advanced stat would have the Texans at about -3.5 on a neutral field over the Colts.The Packers are still getting 3.5 points of home-field advantage from me, and because of that the current market has this game pegged as Packers -2 on a neutral field. However, DAVE ratings are more heavily slanted toward Green Bay and would have them close to four points better on a neutral. Even if you think Green Bay only deserves three at home, that's still a 1.5-point gap from where the market has it. The biggest discrepancy of the week comes in Chargers-Titans, where a line of Titans -2.5 would basically make this game even on a neutral field. But the Chargers rate much higher in the Football Outsiders ratings to the point where you would make it about Chargers -3.5 on a neutral field. So in Tenne see, that's saying this game should be Chargers -1. Fading the public -3 at 49ers -9.5 at If 80% of the action or more is on one side of a line, you want to be thinking about taking the other side, a practice commonly known as fading the public. If the consensus thinks it has a game figured out, that should be flashing warning signs for you. All betting trends data is from Sports Insights as of Tuesday night. We've got two teams that qualify this week, both road favorites. The public isn't buying the Bengals or Redskins at all, and it's not hard to see why with how poorly those two teams have played. Joc Pederson Jersey The Jaguars have been a bit stuck in the mud themselves after a fast start for , but clearly the public sees this as a get-right spot. The 49ers will continue to be a popular bet-on team if they keep dominating their opponents. Underdog parlay of the week Cardinals +135 at GiantsChargers +120 at Titans +150 at BearsWe're looking to take advantage of the road underdog trend we talked about at the top and see if it continues another week and helps cash nearly +1200 on a three-team moneyline parlay. The Giants haven't had a strong home-field advantage in years, and with Fernando Valenzuela Jersey how the Cardinals are playing, I don't know how you can say the Giants are clearly the better team. The Chargers play is following our DVOA and lookahead data above. If you trust DVOA, you can go ahead and throw the Texans in your parlay too. And our third leg to help juice up this parlay will be a Saints team that keeps winning with its backup quarterback against a Bears team with an outstanding defense but a ton of questions at the QB position.We cashed in this space two weeks ago and almost had a repeat winner, but the Dolphins fell a two-point conversion short of giving us a +600 win. The 49ers managed to easily get the outright win against the Rams. Teaser of the week Texans +7.5 at ColtsPatriots -3.5 at I'd be fine with using the Chargers again here and teasing them up to +8.5, but instead I'm going to go with two of the best teams in the AFC in the Texans and Patriots. All Houston has to do is not lose by more than a touchdown, which seems pretty much like a lock. When the Patriots have been favored by more than a touchdown on the road since the start of 2016, they've failed to win by at least four points just twice in 13 tries, both times in Miami. That includes three games on the road against the Jets, where they've won by five, seven and 14.The teaser of the week is just 2-4 this year after a 12-5 run in 2018, and last week's lo s was due to trusting the Titans offense to not look like the worst offense in football, another reason I'm sticking to teams we know are good this week.
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